We’re showing the distribution of simulated final pledged delegate counts in the table, where taller bars mean a more likely outcome.We’re also charting how many delegates, on average, each candidate is projected to have pledged to them at each point in the primary season, along with a range of possible delegate countsWelcome to our new 2020 Democratic primary forecast. In each of these approaches, state-level winning probabilities are assigned to the candidates with each update of the forecast. These results do not affect the overall forecast.This state releases its results after Bernie Sanders dropped out on April 8.
These results do not affect the overall forecast.This state releases its results after Bernie Sanders dropped out on April 8.
These results do not affect the overall forecast.This state releases its results after Bernie Sanders dropped out on April 8. These results do not affect the overall forecast.This state releases its results after Bernie Sanders dropped out on April 8. FiveThirtyEight is forecasting the presidential election with three models. © 2020 Electoral Ventures LLC. [5] To get their probabilities of victory for each candidate, they sum up the number of times that candidate got 270 or more electoral votes on each run, much like Jackson and Hooper at HuffPost or Sam Wang at PEC. We will continue to add results from the ongoing primaries, but this forecast has stopped updating.This state releases its results after Bernie Sanders dropped out on April 8. These results do not affect the overall forecast.This state releases its results after Bernie Sanders dropped out on April 8.
The chart shows how many delegates, on average, each candidate is projected to have pledged to them at each point in the primary season, along with a range of possible delegate counts. Blue and red are used to show higher probabilities for Clinton or Trump, with the gradient deepening as the chance of winning increases: Light (60%+), Medium (80%+), Dark (90% +). Updated Nov. 8, 2016. Updated Nov. 8, 2016. These results do not affect the overall forecast.This state releases its results after Bernie Sanders dropped out on April 8. These results do not affect the overall forecast.This state releases its results after Bernie Sanders dropped out on April 8. These results do not affect the overall forecast.This state releases its results after Bernie Sanders dropped out on April 8. These results do not affect the overall forecast.This state releases its results after Bernie Sanders dropped out on April 8. FiveThirtyEight, sometimes rendered as 538, is a website that focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging. FiveThirtyEight’s model simulates the primary season thousands of times to find the most likely outcome for each candidate, accounting for the margin of their wins and losses, plus the possibility that a trailing candidate might drop out.
These results do not affect the overall forecast.This state releases its results after Bernie Sanders dropped out on April 8. * We're updating hourly, so our maps will slightly lag any updates to the FiveThirtyEight forecasts. FiveThirtyEight. These results do not affect the overall forecast. These results do not affect the overall forecast.This state releases its results after Bernie Sanders dropped out on April 8. See something you think is wrong?
political-elasticity-scores: Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts: info : august-senate-polls: How Much Trouble Is Ted Cruz Really In? FiveThirtyEight’s model simulates the primary season thousands of times to find the most likely outcome for each candidate, accounting for the margin of their wins and losses, plus the possibility that a trailing candidate might drop out. For more information, see the FiveThirtyEight election forecast user guide. These results do not affect the overall forecast.This state releases its results after Bernie Sanders dropped out on April 8. Predicting the primaries is a tricky business. President. Nate Silver's predictions and polling data for the 2016 presidential election between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. We’re also showing the distribution of simulated final pledged delegate counts in the table, where taller bars mean a more likely outcome.FiveThirtyEight’s model simulates the primary season thousands of times to find the most likely outcome for each candidate, accounting for the margin of their wins and losses, plus the possibility that a trailing candidate might drop out. Senate . As the election draws nearer, look for fewer differences between the three maps.Click or tap any of the maps for an interactive version.
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