New population projections suggest Western Australian planning documents were realistic in working to projections of a combined Perth & Peel region with 3.5 million residents by 2050.The end of the mining boom led commentators to query assumptions, in the Perth & Peel@3.5 million suite of planning documents, that Perth will need 800,000 new homes by 2050.The projections are based on assumed levels of births, deaths and migration, based on long and short-term trends and future scenarios dictated by research in Australia and elsewhere, from 2018-2066.The bureau created 72 scenarios showing the complete range of possibilities but selected three possible outcomes, representing the middle of the range, for its major analysis.The ABS projected WA’s population would increase slowly – from 0.7-1.7 per cent per year – to 2.8-3 million in 2027, depending on interstate migration.The full range of possibilities for WA 2066 is 3.6-5.9 million, but the three selected series project 4.5-4.9 million.Growth for the rest of the state is smaller, with Perth expected to take the bulk; the proportion of WA people expected to live in the Greater Perth region expected to rise from 79 per cent now to 81 per cent within just 10 years.Currently, Greater Perth (including Peel) has about 2 million people.The outer ranges of projections were 2.9 at lowest and 4 million at highest by 2052.But the three selected series project roughly 3.3-3.6 million Greater Perth residents by 2052, which accords with assumptions behind the Perth & Peel@3.5 million strategic planning frameworks released earlier this year.“While the forecasts help to indicate when we may reach a particular target, our focus has primarily been at how we develop housing opportunities adjacent to major public transport routes and within the existing urban corridors,” Planning Minister Rita Saffioti said.“This means expanding the public transport system to reflect the current approved growth corridors and areas through Metronet, and also developing new housing precincts adjacent to existing public transport nodes.“We also will feed any revised population forecasts into the review of the planning frameworks which are due in four years’ time, but for the short to medium term we will continue to focus on a more strategic growth of our suburbs.”The three selected series projected 3.7-4.3 million people for Greater Perth by 2066.In 2016-17, more people left WA to seek their fortunes elsewhere than came to WA from interstate, meaning a net loss of 13,900 people.And only 12,600 more people migrated here from overseas than departed overseas, a low net gain not even enough to make up for the loss to other states.All projections show the low overseas migration figure bouncing back. Most of these will be in the Central sub-region.Most of Perth’s new dwellings (about 409,000) will continue to be greenfield developments on the urban fringe.If infill stays around current levels (40 per cent), the number of houses built on the urban fringe will be even higher, around 470,000.That highlights another challenge facing Perth, namely the mismatch between where people live and where they work.The central metro area, which extends from Bayswater to North Beach, and from South Fremantle to Cannington, has more jobs than people, with a ratio of 139 per cent.In contrast, the north-west sub-region, which encompasses Wanneroo and Joondalup, has a ratio of 49 per cent, meaning the number of jobs is only half the number of working-age people.This is particularly important in Perth, which has one of the highest car use rates in the world, with more than three quarters of people travelling to work by car.The minister’s signature policies include Metronet, which features an expansion of Perth’s heavy rail network to places such as Byford, Yanchep and Ellenbrook.“They are an acknowledgement that growth is occurring now,” “People who want to live in those areas should have access to good public transport, so they are connected to jobs and opportunities.”The state government is also overseeing a major expansion of the city’s road network.Critics believe this will lock in Perth’s car dependency, but the minister is unapologetic.“You need to invest in both; we are a spread-out city,” She cites the Mandurah rail line as an example of public transport working in tandem with roads.“If you don’t invest in public transport, your roads become unworkable,” The state government has also been pushing to get more infill, in the process getting into a fight with municipalities including Subiaco and Nedlands.“No doubt the inner-city councils have a real challenge.“Some have been proactive, others have been a bit resistant.”To support more infill, the government is pursuing multiple reforms to a planning system that experienced planners such as “The planning system in WA is set up for greenfield development, and that’s what we’ve seen a lot of in the last 40 years,” “Infill is much more complicated; the system is not well set up for that.”“I think the area where local governments get a bit frustrated is where the density argument is not backed up with infrastructure investment,” he said.“Certainly in the central sub-region, where the largest amount of infill housing is occurring, that is an issue.“There is no agreed plan for future transport investment in this region, there hasn’t been for a decade.“The really good cities in the world have worked out that planning schemes need to better integrate transport and land use.”“Density plus amenity plus mobility is what they get,” she said.“They don’t get density with a promise of some things to come.Urban Development Institute of Australia state director “We have a planning framework that has been put together in isolation from an infrastructure strategy and in isolation from a sustainability or environmental strategy,” “There is a cohort that will always want large homes and lots of space, but how do we also accommodate affordable housing, singles, couples, people downsizing?” she asked.“We don’t have anywhere near enough one- and two-bedroom houses in Perth.“To accommodate a population of 3.5 million by 2050, we need to deliver a lot more density.”“We’ve gone as far as Mandurah and Yanchep with a rail line, how much further can we go?” While there are some opportunities in Perth for high-rise, she saw more potential in medium- density infill.“That medium density space is the real opportunity, which we have done well in some areas, East Perth, the Midland redevelopment near the hospital, Subiaco near Centro.“That’s the kind of density that I think is more acceptable to the community but there is still a place for high rise in the right location.”She also wants to see larger, better quality infill developments.“We should encourage amalgamation of blocks for new developments, because big blocks give you an ability to deliver much better outcomes,” The minister said the impact of density and well-planned precincts on business was often overlooked.“High streets need people to survive and thrive; it means density so you have people who can walk to the strip to get their coffee and have their meal,” A key element in the government’s agenda is the so-called planning reform action plan, with legislation being drafted.“There is a lot of debate about particular buildings and their height, but that is usually a result of the local planning scheme and strategy,” “We want to make sure our schemes and plans are robust and reflect a good plan for each suburb.“We need to engage people earlier when the schemes are developed, to avoid the arguments later about particular buildings “We don’t want frustration and surprises at the end.”She said a key element in planning schemes was the transition from density to single residences.The slowdown in Perth’s population growth has taken pressure off the city’s land supply, which is overseen by WA Planning Commission chair The UDIA has reviewed one area of Perth and found that up to 25 per cent of land zoned ‘urban’ could not be developed because of issues such as land fragmentation or environmental constraints.The state’s land supply is updated each year in the Urban Growth Monitor.The latest edition said it would take 33 years to fully consume the current stock of urban-zoned land in the Perth and Peel regions, based on the historical development pattern of 30 per cent infill.If the 47 per cent infill target were to be achieved, the existing urban-zoned land would last for 62 years.“When we talk about Perth and Peel developing to 3.5 million people, which it will eventually, we are making sure we have enough land that is zoned for urban development to accommodate that target, and a big part of that is the 47 per cent infill,” he said.“We need to make sure the land is available and the infrastructure is in place to support that population.”“From what I see of this government, ‘Perth to Peel’ is effectively an urban growth boundary,” she said.“There is already a commitment, I think, to an urban growth boundary.”“There is a lot of developable land available, plus Metronet creates new opportunities alongside rail infrastructure,” she said.“We know from our work that people like Perth pretty much the way it is,” she said.“The current policy reflects where the community is at.”She added that the appreciation of Perth’s liveable environment had been heightened during the COVID-19 restrictions.“We have really appreciated Perth as a place with lots of public open space, access to the river and lots of natural bush,” “COVID has highlighted the importance of a really well planned and designed urban environment and the walkability and liveability of that environment,” she said, “We’ve started to use our local neighbourhoods, our cycle paths, our walking trails, our public open spaces, our local shops.”“When Perth has another 1.5 million people, it still needs to feel like Perth,” she said.“In most other cities, communities are really pushing back against trees being knocked down and habitat being eroded for more housing.”She noted there had been considerable change, with more high-rise and more density in places such as Subi Centro and East Perth.“We are still building an excessive number of family-style dwellings when our demographics over 20 years have changed a lot.”She said Perth needed more housing choices to ensure there were products that were affordable and suited different ages and stages of life.“I think they’ve done well; the minister has a reform agenda and there has been widespread consultation.“The minister has also been incredibly brave using her callin powers to get the outcomes she has wanted and been brave about making unpopular decisions.””They are certainly moving in the right direction if the goal is balance, but is that the goal?” she asked.“At the very least it should be 50 per cent and policies should be working across government to get there.”She paints a worrying picture of what may happen without a major shift.“Perth will grow out, not up, and the region will suffer from the ill effects of land obesity with limited options for intervention,” “Greater Perth will be fixed in a cycle of urban sprawl and car dependence.“This approach will come at a cost to the environment, the community, taxpayers and to Perth’s prized quality of life.”Marion Fulker advocates bigger changes to accommodate Perth’s long-term growth.
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