A friend who works at the National Weather Service in Lubbock, Texas, writes…“Even out here in Amarillo we typically get our worst travel problems and most accidents with 1-2 inches of snow. Thousands of kids were stranded in schools, countless adults spent the night in their office, some spent over 20 hours stuck in their vehicle on Interstate highways. I pulled over at the I-59/20 rest area near Brookwood, and after a review of data and reports, no doubt things were going wrong. Hurricane Maria Cripples Puerto Rico, 2017. Liberty Park as seen from helicopter, Wednesday, January 29, 2014.
Parents en route to pick up kids dismissed from school early were stranded on highways. For most places over the northern U.S., this is nothing but another winter day; people wouldn’t even notice it.
I’m sure my Honda’s enshrined on someone’s Facebook page with a witty caption.
FORECAST BUST: On a synoptic scale, the forecast was good.
Distinguishing between the city proper and the metro region is no semantic quibble. Thousands of motorists were stranded, many overnight, as a winter storm dropped three inches of snow, and ice made driving hazardous. Here is the National Weather Service forecast, issued at 5:35 a.m.And, the forecast graphic I prepared at about the same time the morning of January 28…You can see the small scale nature of the forecast miss. They picked me up, no questions asked, and let me stay the night with them. The problem comes when they give inaccurate information that confuses the public, and information that can become dangerous. Studies need to be done on the accretion process the morning of January 28, why so much ice was involved on roads with a powdery snow.IMPACT FORECASTING: We are in the business of forecasting weather; we need to learn a better way of forecasting, and communicating the actual impact of weather events. A winter storm dumped snow in central and southern Alabama the day before bringing the Birmingham-area to a halt. (Photo by Scott Cunninghaml/Getty Images)Scott Cunninghaml/Getty Images Not sure anyone could have called the impact of this specific event, even if the weather forecast was correct (with 1 to 2 inches of snow), but we still must learn and be better.CREDIBILITY HIT: As should be the case, there was quick reaction to the bad forecast.It was mentioned in the New York Times later in the day…Forecast busts are part of what we do. I was born here, and I plan to die here. Missing a northern 1-2 inch zone by 40 miles, quite frankly, isn’t very unusual… we just need to communicate uncertainty better.SEQUENCE OF EVENTS: I honestly didn’t recognize the forecast error until 8:30-9:00 a.m.
An overrunning snow event for … January 11, 2014.
The January 2014 Gulf Coast winter storm was a somewhat rare winter storm that impacted the eastern and southeastern United States, as well as Mexico, most notably the Gulf Coast region, which rarely receives frozen precipitation. We've had a number of winter weather events, but city officials have been well-prepared each time.Here's how the story unfolded on our Facebook page:The first signs of a snow storm aren't typically flakes falling from the sky...A few hours into the Winter Storm Warning and FOX 5's Joanne Feldman was already tracking snow showers moving into the state.Road conditions quickly deteriorated due to a mix of icy conditions and people heading home early. The Splawn family had left the comfort of their home (where they were all together) to brave the elements to take pillows, blankets, and toothbrushes to a local elementary school.
Around here, it was a nightmare for some.FORECAST BUST: On a synoptic scale, the forecast was good. Snow!! Continue to article content ... Southerners trapped by a “snowpocalypse” instead of the ... success over the past 175 years has … Thankfully I made it Riverchase Parkway in Hoover before getting into gridlock.
Hopefully this will be the worst of the season. Was it crazy to get in the car with a stranger? #SNOWpocalypse 2014 || Mon, 2/17/2014. about miraculous stories from the snow storm that hit our city, but I would like to let you know of one more. The last time there was a forecast error with such human impact was in January 1982, when a timing error put the city in the same situation. Sure, but I was desperate. Other snow amounts across North-Central Alabama varied generally from 0.5″ to 3.0″. I will write more bad forecasts in the future (that is why it is called a forecast), but I assure you the best science knowledge available and long years of experience is put to good use in our products.
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