He’s an expert numbers cruncher, who covers polling and demographics at The Times. Sanders will also probably do well in many of the state’s larger communities, like Concord and Portsmouth, and in most of the state’s college towns.
In some races, predominantly rural places tend to be the first ones to report votes. And other questions about our live election forecasts.The needle is one way of following election results. “When the needle says 90%, that means 100%, right? But he might not be as strong in the elite bastion of Hanover, home to Dartmouth, where Elizabeth Warren, Mr. Buttigieg or even Amy Klobuchar might have a shot.The Iowa Democratic caucus was not the smoothest-run electoral contest we’ve ever seen, and that was reflected in the needle’s performance.In the broadest sense, the needle fared all right: It consistently showed Mr. Buttigieg favored to win the most state delegate equivalency results, while showing Mr. Sanders favored to win the most votes. I think that there is something about — like the clarity of the way the needle moves and points. If you choose to follow the results live tonight, we hope you’ll do it with us: We’ll have results, analysis from our reporters and interactive maps.It’s the visual representation of The Times’s live election night forecast. “The needle is an election night forecast. In Alabama’s special Senate election in 2017, the needle showed before many analysts did that the Democrat, Doug Jones, had a path to victory.For those who wonder whether the world really needs the election needle, we realize the actual results will emerge soon enough. We will be highly uncertain in close races until some votes have been counted, well after polls close in those races.Three forecast needle displays — for overall House control, House composition and the national popular vote — as they will appear before votes begin being counted on election night.Nate Cohn, who covers polling and demographics for The New York Times, describes what informs our election night forecast tool known as the needle. Continue reading the main story. The New York Times The data geeks who write for the New York Times ’ Upshot have found a perfect mechanism to drive their readers into the deep depths of madness on election night. A 65 percent chance of winning means losing quite often. The needle is a shortcut to most of the things we know about political geography.In 2016, the needle helped us realize fairly early on election night that Donald J. Trump was Using similar methods in 2014, we were able to tell readers that Mark Warner, a Virginia Democrat, was probably on his way back to the Senate despite trailing all the way through 99 percent of precinct reports. These caucuses, first used on a large scale this year, were held for Iowans in places like hospitals, out-of-state military installations and overseas, and they broke overwhelmingly for Mr. Sanders.The model should have controlled for varying vote methods, as it usually does but did not here. And we were trying to come up with ways to communicate that in a way that was a little bit more visceral than just a probability.” So how does it work? As the results come in, we compare the actual returns with our baseline. In a weekly email newsletter, get the best of The Upshot's analysis about politics, policy and everyday life. The needle merely reflects our understanding of something that has already happened.
When a county reports all of its early votes in one large batch, the results may not mean what you think they do. And some people hate it. And it may fail to anticipate returns that don’t fit the patterns we’ve seen until a certain point.For this reason and others, the needle is not used to make definitive statements about when a race should be considered over. We then adjust our expectations for the vote that’s left: If a candidate is running ahead of our pre-election expectations in the areas that are counted, we might assume that he or she is also poised to do better in the demographically similar areas that remain.The needle gives many readers the piece of information they want more than anything else on election night: It tells them who is on track to win the election. People spent weeks trying to think of what the right way was to communicate our forecasts in a way that was compelling to people.
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